Indian Economy will contract by 4.5% this year due to the impact of Chinese Virus! The prediction made news across; it’s a trend nowadays to share a negative story. Negative news sells fast; it’s 3x more potent than positivity. No wonder some people write and talk negatively regularly on social media to get some cheap following. My free advice is to avoid these negative people. Life will always be ups and downs take everything in the stride. I have said this in the previous article too. You can read it here.

The positive news is Fitch has predicted a 9.5% growth next financial year. I am sure you would not have seen this info anywhere. The media, politicians, social media economists, all these people understand nothing about economics. Still, we can find them giving Gyan to the government on what should do to improve GDP, should petrol and diesel prices be reduced or not, etc. Nowadays they are busy advising the government if India should go on a war with Chine. Fantastic guys, the lockdown has made people go even more bonkers than before.

One more positive news, just two days before, the IMF has said that the Emerging Markets will stabilise must faster than the Developed Markets. India comes under the category of emerging markets. No wonder the Sensex recovered from the panic low of approximately 26000 to 35000 today. Not that the investors have regained their prices in this recovery, but the values have risen. Sadly, I know a few people who exited their investments during the last week of March’2020 and are regretting today. Panic can make an investor take irrational decisions. At least Iam happy many did not exit after discussing with me.

Hence, if you want to read something positive, keep visiting this site. We at Vridhi Money will always bring out the real facts for you. Follow us on the social media channels and also subscribe to email alerts by going to the home page of this site. So, if the prediction of IMF has to be accurate, what sort of recovery will Indian Economy and Indian Share Market see? Will it be a Big U, or a W or a V? My estimate is it will be a V shape recovery. And those investors adding up currently and staying he course will not regret. The primary issue of Corona is in the four major metros, the rural India seems to be much stable.

If you are regularly reading the negative tweets and videos of people, you may be infected by their thoughts. In such a scenario, don’t believe a word written here, during the week just here out the statements of business owners. We all will agree that they know better about their businesses than others, and most of them sound positive on the rural side. As said earlier, Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are major pain points, but in the rest of the places, the business has started happening. Earlier it was zero, now it could be as low as 20%, but still, it’s a piece of positive news.

We will keep posting more useful things on money and investments. For now, one major question which has repeatedly been coming to us is on India-China faceoff. Let’s talk on that. Is it a hanging sword on our heads? Yes for sure it is, and believe me, it’s the same case for China too. China and Pakistan are the most untrustworthy nations. Sadly we cannot change our neighbours, but we should teach lessons to those people and politicians talking their language sitting here in India. Let’s not debate what they tweet morning to evening is right or wrong; the truth that their tweets are liked and made viral in China and Pakistan is enough proof that they are Anti-India.

So will the so-called superpower China dare to go for a full confrontation with India? A BIG No. But will they keep trying muscle flexing? Yes. The good news is India is no longer scared of these tactics. If China were superpower:

  1. It would not have accepted the setback in Doklam. They kept threatening, and PM Modi just kept watching.
  2. This time in Galwan Valley, they suffered more casualties than India. It is said by US intelligence and not by India alone.
  3. If China were a superpower, they would not be sitting and talking with India past one week.
  4. Nepal being ruled by communists initially sided with China, but now they are also realising the true colours of China after it grabbed a village of theirs too.
  5. Who will stand by China in case of a war? Just Pakistan and North Korea. All other countries will side by India.
  6. A small nation like Vietnam showed China a mirror. India is much more significant.
  7. India’s military capacities are almost equal to China, much of the petrol taxes which we keep cribbing about has gone in building a defence of the country.
  8. Rafale’s are getting delivered in July! More power to India.
  9. Our Defence Minister was in Russia for a few days. China is jittery what he discussed there.
  10. Lastly, China is already feeling the heat as it’s companies are facing boycott in India. The business will not let them take the extreme step though communists are capable of doing so.
Vivek Karwa Army Camp Investors Awareness Program

Many of the points mentioned above might make sense. I would like to confess here that Iam, not a defence expert and not among the lot which advises the govt unsolicited. The above learnings are from various talks with those related to defence. I serve them as their investment advisor. The below picture will show you that I keep addressing them. We at VRIDHI respect all our uniformed forces and will advise them at no cost.

Will further lockdown extensions hit the economy negatively? We at VRIDHI believe that until a medicine if found this Chinese Virus menace is not going to end. Government is in talks with business bodies regularly. The sense we get is that they will do everything needed to support the people. I guess the trend of job losses and pay cuts will now begin. If you have been getting your salary in the past three months, you are blessed. Never let the company down.

Politicians keep giving statements about the suffering of poor people. We believe the pains are more in the middle-class and lower-middle-class segments. Not being sadist here but the fact is that the poor were on the road before corona and are on the road even now, they at least are taken care of by social workers. Even I have been helping them. The pain is in the middle class if they don’t get their salary, who will bear their family expenses and who will pay their EMI’s! The biggest mistake a middle class does is buying a home on EMI the moment they get their first salary in life.

I guess it has become a long read today hence let’s stop here for now. I will write again. Also, if I write more against China, they may set their forces to attack this site and hack it 🙂

Don’t worry about the market movements, stay the course. Do call us in case you require any assistance. No WhatsApp messages asking for stock recommendations please, it’s not legal advising like that as per SEBI rules.

Best Wishes

Vivek Karwa